How to parse the early election results

Good morning, it’s Tuesday, June 2 and you can expect the clouds to dissipate by early afternoon (high 70s). 

At exactly 8 p.m. tonight, more than 400 election workers will be standing sentry by the 424 ballot drop boxes strewn across the county, poised to lock them up the moment the polls close. Once the keys have been turned to secure the boxes, election workers will be deployed throughout the night to retrieve those ballots for processing and counting. 

It’s all part of the complicated logistical undertaking necessary to transport, process and tabulate the ballots in the nation’s most populous county — a place that sprawls across more than 4,000 square miles and is home to nearly 6 million registered voters. 

In the quaint harbor town of Avalon on Catalina Island — where hundreds of residents have cast votes in the parish hall of St. Catherine of Alexandria Catholic Church, or dropped ballots at the island’s only library — the Sheriff’s Department will ferry ballots across the San Pedro Channel by boat to Long Beach. From Long Beach Harbor, other Sheriff’s deputies will load the bags into cars to drive them another 25 to 30 miles northeast to the City of Industry, where a onetime Fry’s Electronics store is now the county’s massive vote-processing and counting facility. 

Most of the rest of the county’s ballots will be shuttled to the central counting facility by car, though ballot-filled helicopters will also be jetting in from Lancaster, Pomona, Santa Monica, Van Nuys, Santa Clarita, Torrance and Lakewood. (The Sheriff’s Department actually removes seats from their helicopters for this duty “to make sure we can get as many ballots on those birds as possible,” according to L.A. County registrar spokesperson Mike Sanchez.)

For those eagerly watching at home, you can expect the county to deliver their first tranche of results between  8:30 and 8:45 p.m. That initial update will be composed entirely of vote-by-mail ballots submitted before Election Day. The next set of results will come in around 15 minutes later, consisting of ballots cast at vote centers before Election Day.

How to parse those early results in L.A. County 

In recent election cycles, partisan voting patterns have helped dictate how those early results trended. Post-2020 GOP fears around mail-in ballots pushed more Republicans to in-person voting, meaning the first tranche of results from early mail-in ballots tended to skew Democratic, whereas Republicans were overrepresented in the second drop of early in-person results. 

But it’s harder to know what to expect this year for a few reasons, according to election data expert Paul Mitchell. 

Fearful that the large number of Democratic candidates in the gubernatorial race could lead to two Republicans shutting Democrats out of the general election, many Democratic voters were holding their ballots until the last minute  to cast their vote for the Democrat they thought would be most likely to advance. That means the first tranche could tilt more conservative than normal, since Republicans had turned out at higher rates than Democrats ahead of Election Day, Mitchell explained.

Republican voters might also be in something of a “reset” around vote-by-mail practices, with more of them returning to it. And conversely, local Democrats who have favored mail-in voting in recent years might opt for in-person voting because of fears about President Trump’s attacks on mail voting. 

Beyond the first few result drops, one trend has been overwhelmingly clear in L.A. County in recent years: There tends to be a “blue shift,” with the later tranches of results skewing more progressive because of who tends to drop off their ballots on the last day.

“In Democratic areas, more of the late vote is going to be younger, renter, minorities," who tend to slant more liberal, Mitchell explained.  

Take Los Angeles’ last June mayoral primary: On the morning after Election Day, the Los Angeles Times’ print headline trumpeted Rick Caruso’s narrow lead over then-candidate Karen Bass; Bass ultimately finished more than seven points ahead of Caruso once all the votes had been tabulated. 

L.A. Material members can join us at 9 p.m. for an election night Zoom hosted by Julia Turner, Julia Wick and Matt Hamilton. We’ll be taking you through the early election night returns, explaining the contours of local races and answering your questions.

It’s hard to overemphasize how much sway Rep. Maxine Waters, who is now 87 years old and poised to be re-elected to her 19th term in Congress, holds in Compton and neighboring southeast Los Angeles County cities. But Waters’ power is being scrutinized this spring in light of a controversy that has exploded on the most seemingly humdrum of municipal issues: a printed flyer, or slate mailer, sent to thousands that opposed a bond measure to pay to replace a single public high school in Compton. 

The fight over the $360-million initiative, Measure CPT, has stoked confusion among the local political class and led to the spectacle of Waters facing down rapper-turned-mogul Dr. Dre, as Matt Hamilton reports.

GUBERNATORIAL WATCH: Former Biden cabinet secretary Xavier Becerra is still the frontrunner in the race, with Republican Steve Hilton and Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer appearing to scrap for the second spot on the November ballot. Meanwhile, Politico goes deep on Becerra’s past and the L.A Times attempts to understand how Becerra leapfrogged the field after months stuck near the back of the pack. 

L.A.’S DEMOGRAPHIC REALITY: After more than a half-century of Black representation, this city council seat in South L.A. is now open — and all 6 candidates on the ballot are Latino. In case you missed it, L.A. Material reported on the CD 9 race.

INTERNECINE CONFLICT: The Intercept digs into the L.A. left’s war with itself over the mayoral race, with pragmatism and ideological purity colliding as progressive voters decide between activist Rae Huang and Councilmember Nithya Raman. 

THE MROD EVOLUTION: The L.A. Times looks at how L.A. Councilmember Monica Rodriguez went from a thorn in Mayor Karen Bass’ side to an unlikely ally. 

FROM THE ANNALS OF EWW:  Although he has been dead since 2019, Jeffrey Epstein’s sperm may live on. The New York Times reports that the disgraced financier banked his swimmers several years before his death and it remains unclear whether they are still being stored.

THE FALL OF JOE SANBERG: A man who made millions as an L.A. investor and flirted with a 2020 presidential run was sentenced Monday to 14 years in federal prison for a years-long scheme in which he defrauded investors and lenders. Sanberg’s now-defunct company was also in the middle of an NBA scandal involving the L.A. Clippers and the team's superstar Kawhi Leonard.

A Nichols Canyon Richard Neutra house with a creek running under it 

This is the house for deep-pocketed fans of California modernism who don’t mind the risks of hillside living. Designed by Richard Neutra, the Hendershot House was built in 1962 for Robert Hendershot and artist Harumi Taniguchi and later updated by the famed architect’s son, Dion Neutra. A year-round natural creek runs under the property, which sounds utterly magical and also like a potential liability. The original Neutra cabinetry is preserved, and glass walls look out on the lush canyon landscaping. It has four bedrooms and four bathrooms and is listed for $5.95 million.

AND FINALLY… A poem to pair with your morning coffee:  “Jet” by Tony Hoagland.

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