Good morning. It’s Wednesday, May 20, and you can expect a high of 85.
The L.A. mayoral race has become a hotbed of online gambling.
Bettors have poured more than $3 million into this year’s mayoral race on Kalshi, the online prediction market that lets users gamble on everything from politics to the weather.
That’s roughly triple what bettors put into last year’s Democratic primary in New York City at the same point in the race, according to an L.A. Material analysis of the platform’s data. It’s a testament to the explosion of online prediction markets, which have only recently started offering bets on U.S. elections thanks to court rulings in 2024.
Kalshi operates much like the stock market. Bettors trade “contracts” based on the outcome of yes or no questions — will Karen Bass win the election? — and prices fluctuate with supply and demand. The higher a contract’s price, the more likely traders believe that outcome is to occur. (Right now, Kalshi gives Bass a 61% chance of winning.)
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