L.A. Mayor’s Race: Who Will Get the Caruso Voters?

BENEATH WHITE UMBRELLAS AT A FUNDRAISER in a sun-dappled Brentwood backyard last month, Los Angeles mayoral candidate Adam Miller asked for a show of hands from anyone who believes things are going well in Los Angeles.

Not a single hand went up. A murmur of amusement rippled through the crowd of potential supporters, an acknowledgement of their shared frustration with the state of the city. It was those same sentiments that drove Miller, a tech entrepreneur-turned-philanthropist, to join what is now a crowded field of contenders challenging embattled Mayor Karen Bass in the June 2 primary election.

When asked what aspects of the city are not functioning, one financial advisor in attendance exhaled sharply: “Boy where do we start?” Another attendee, an asset manager who lost his Pacific Palisades home in the deadly wildfires last year, described a city bureaucracy that has moved at a glacial pace as he tries to rebuild: “Karen Bass made a bunch of promises about how everything would be so fast,” he said. “It’s not that way.”

Miller has centered his pitch on a vision of Los Angeles as a city struggling to deliver basic services. “LA just feels broken right now,” Miller told the crowd, which was sprawled on outdoor lounge furniture sipping lemonade and iced tea. To appreciative nods, he pointed to the dilapidated condition of the streets, broken streetlights, “the sidewalks, the trash, the homeless encampments everywhere” and “the feeling that nothing is getting done.”

The dissatisfaction is not confined to tony neighborhoods in close proximity to the fire’s devastation. Only about 31 percent of respondents citywide said they viewed Bass favorably in a recent poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. Only a quarter said they backed her re-election bid — suggesting she is likely to fall far short of the majority she needs to avoid a November runoff. That has left the mayor fighting to hold the coalition of voters from the Westside, central and South L.A. and the southern expanses of the San Fernando Valley that delivered her a nearly 10-point victory over businessman Rick Caruso, a Republican-turned-Democrat, in 2022. 

And it’s left the more than 400,000 Angelenos who voted for Caruso in that race — who don’t have a Caruso as an option this time — up for grabs.

Those voters may not be numerous enough to give any one candidate the keys to City Hall. But they will play a major role in determining which contenders make it through the June primary and onto the November ballot.  

In sapphire-blue Los Angeles, “the voter that’s in the center is still going to be a progressive,” said Paul Mitchell, vice president of the voter data firm Political Data Inc. (describing them as Democrats who likely voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, but aren’t railing against the party with the same fervor as members of the Democratic Socialists of America). “They might be a homeowner; they might be supportive of police, but they’re not by any means conservative like what we think of nationally or statewide.” 

Four years ago, Caruso spent more than $100 million targeting those voters and managed to win about 45 percent of the electorate. Caruso said in an interview that he believes the frustrations of those middle-of-road voters have only grown since he ran against Bass in 2022. 

“They really are the silent majority,” said Caruso. Within the city “nothing is working for anybody,” he said. “The trick is getting people to vote.”

Caruso, who publicly considered running for mayor this year, said he has not yet decided whether to endorse in the mayor’s race, in part because he’s “not excited” about any of the candidates. But he said he is creating a political organization that would help mobilize “the people in the middle to flex their muscle” to ensure that elected officials “start hearing their voices.” (An advisor to Caruso confirmed he is working daily with business and community leaders, looking to move aggressively and starting to put the organization together to make a meaningful impact this election cycle).

BUT AS THE JUNE ELECTION LOOMS, it sometimes feels as though there is hardly a campaign going at all. Despite the explosion of municipal drama in February, when progressive City Councilwoman Nithya Raman scrambled the field by jumping in to challenge Bass, her one-time ally, and despite the overwhelming sense of dissatisfaction expressed by many residents, there is little sense yet that a battle is on over the city’s future. Or even that the candidates can get anyone to pay attention. 

"This race feels quiet and it doesn't feel like people are that engaged in it," said Mike Bonin, the Executive Director of the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs at Cal State-LA and a former member of the City Council. "So I'm not sure who's going to be motivated to turn out and that puts a premium on field and organization." 

The mathematical dynamics of the June election are also complex as Bass faces off against four major contenders. Three of Bass’s prominent rivals — Miller, Raman and conservative former reality star Spencer Pratt — are all trying to woo those voters in the middle by addressing their frustrations about costs and discontent with city government. A fourth, community organizer Rae Huang, is running far to the left. 

Pratt, a Republican who lost his Pacific Palisades home in the fires, built a large MAGA following on social media during the disaster. But he has downplayed political labels and drawn interest from Westsiders who are still aghast about the city’s lack of preparedness for the firestorm. He argues on his website that for too long “Los Angeles has ignored basic maintenance while spending too much time and money on political symbolism.” He has promised to “restore a camera-ready Los Angeles” by accelerating sidewalk repairs, aggressively filling potholes and cleaning up trash and graffiti. One of the controversial posters available for download on his site shows an image of Bass inside a trash can beneath the word basura, Spanish for garbage. 

The campaign is gaining traction in some surprising circles. Earlier this month, podcaster and former L.A. Times columnist Meghan Daum, who had become a supporter, wrote on X: “My snobby intellectual podcast just dropped an interview with @spencerpratt, who I’m supporting for mayor of L.A. We live in strange times — and exciting ones.” (A Pratt campaign representative declined a request for an interview). 

Miller and Pratt are both competing for the voters who are most angry at city leadership. At his own fundraiser in Brentwood, Miller had to contend with questions about Pratt’s appeal. Lorie Cudzil, an undecided voter who lost her home in the fire in the Pacific Palisades, noted that many voters from her area have been attracted by Pratt’s message because they are still incensed by the city’s “lack of accountability” after the fires and frustrated that there has not been more progress on top priorities from infrastructure repairs to homelessness.

Meanwhile on the left, Raman — a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who has at times disavowed some of the group’s more radical policy positions — is competing for votes with Huang, a housing advocate and pastor who is also a DSA member. But while Raman’s radical reputation might make her seem like an unlikely fit to woo voters at the center of the L.A. electorate, the Harvard and MIT grad is a technocrat at heart. And her campaign has been looking to broaden her appeal as she has played up her slogan to make “a city that works for all.” 

Raman has come under fire from critics, including the Los Angeles Police Protective League, for voting against the use of a strict anti-camping ordinance to clear certain homeless encampments, which she has described as a performative approach that amounts to “an incredibly expensive game of sidewalk shuffle” that essentially moves tents from one block to another. But this week she vowed to deal with all encampments citywide by 2030. Her plan includes deploying street medicine teams to address mental and physical health issues; restructuring the city’s use of motel rooms; and expanding the use of short-term rental vouchers. 

And at a recent event with restaurant owners in Hollywood, Raman offered a sharp critique of the city’s bureaucracy and the hurdles it creates for business owners. She outlined plans for a new nightlife czar; more accountability for the city with the creation of deadlines for the amount of time it takes a new business to complete the city’s permitting process; and a promise to force the Department of Water and Power to give business owners a guaranteed timeline to turn the power on.

“Every hoop the city makes you jump through costs money you don’t get back and you’re left feeling like the city is your enemy instead of your friend,” Raman said. “This has to change.”

When he got into the race, Miller hoped that positioning himself as a moderate with business experience would appeal to frustrated voters. Instead, he has found himself lagging well behind  Bass, Pratt and Raman in polling and fundraising. His struggle to gain traction was exemplified by the decision of the famously moderate Sherman Oaks homeowners association to feature a debate this week that included only Raman and Bass. The two sparred over several issues, including the mayor’s homelessness program, raises for the police department, and whether Raman is, or is not, a City Hall insider. Raman said she felt “an urgency” for change, while Bass countered: “For you to act as if you’re brand new, or you’ve been on the outside for almost six years, is not accurate.” 

Miller, in turn, accused both Raman and Bass on Wednesday of spending their time debating over “who is at fault for failing to lead.” He is campaigning on his “7x7” plan to fix L.A. with steps he says he could take immediately without City Council approval — including doubling law enforcement patrols, reducing permitting time by 80 percent and rebuilding 1,500 miles of roadway. 

The former CEO has attacked Bass’s homeless programs as a “totally inefficient" waste of money. He has also tried to make a pitch that most L.A. voters want a leader who is more moderate than Raman. At a recent event with Venice business owners and voters, Miller was critical of Raman’s association with the DSA. He argued that if Raman becomes the city’s mayor, there will be “more encampments,” “more crime” and “less economic opportunity.”

Raman brushed off Miller’s criticism at her own event with Hollywood restaurant owners, pointing to the economic success in her district during her time on the City Council. 

“I’ve been elected in a fairly moderate district twice and my district is doing very well,” Raman said. “I mean, drive down Ventura Boulevard — if that’s what radical leadership gets you, then all of L.A. should want this kind of radical leadership.” 

AS THE RACE LIMPS TOWARD the primary, political strategists said it is still unclear where all those moderate voters will go. 

“A majority of people, for the last three or four years, have said the city is going in the wrong direction,” said Fernando Guerra, the founding director of the Thomas & Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University. “This started before Bass, but it’s continued to decline.”

It seems possible that Bass herself could win over a not-insignificant chunk of voters who spurned her for Caruso four years ago. Fearful of a sequel election, the mayor spent the better part of her first term shoring herself up against a challenge from the center and winning the backing of many of the influential groups who campaigned against her in 2022. 

Because of her focus on business development, her push for the expansion and modernization of the city’s convention center and her willingness to take on the city’s long-standing issues with homelessness, Bass won the backing of a coalition of business groups that include the Valley Industry & Commerce Association (VICA), the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce and the Los Angeles County Business Federation. 

Stuart Waldman, VICA’s president,  said Bass won respect from the business community with her “open-door policy.” Even though many business groups supported Caruso when she first ran, she organized a meeting with the business community in her first week in office and has continued to stay in close touch. 

Consternation about the possibility of a far-left progressive running the city is also driving business leaders to back Bass. “I don’t want a DSA as our mayor. Bottom line,” said Patti Jo Wolfson, who is a partner at Cinmark Co. in Northridge. “Safety is number one and that would mean supporting our police.”

After enthusiastically supporting Caruso in 2022, Christy Vega, the owner of Casa Vega, a restaurant in the San Fernando Valley, said she is supporting Bass this time because the mayor was quick to take her call and help her resolve a permitting issue.

“No matter how much criticism I threw at her, she still took care of my small business,” Vega said. “I don’t think that the DSA can differentiate between a small business and a Wall Street-backed business. With Karen, I feel like she’s a leader and I don’t want to split the vote.”

“I’ve never met Adam Miller,” Vega added when asked why she didn’t consider him.

In the end it may be Pratt with his attention-grabbing campaign on social media who captures the largest share of voters angry about the state of the city. In a March poll by FM3 Research for the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, Pratt was the only candidate to break double digits behind Bass and 40 percent of voters were undecided.

In a recent ad that quickly racked up 12 million views, Pratt spoke to camera in front of the homes of Bass and Raman before charging that “they don’t have to live in the mess they’ve created where you live” as he walked down a street lined with tents and showed a montage of fires, traffic, trash and graffiti. The ad closes with Pratt standing in front of the trailer where he said he’s been living while he rebuilds: “They let my home burn down. I know what the consequences of failed leadership are.”

Nina Madock, a retired lawyer who lost her home in the Palisades fire, said Pratt’s message that it is “not acceptable that you’re paying taxes and there's potholes on every street and you have to fix your own sidewalks” is resonating. "A lot of the people that I know who are voting for him are Democrats, especially the Palisades,” said Madok, who said she leans Republican. “My friends and neighbors are over it. They're sick of it. They want change. With some people, it takes a disaster like this [the fires] to really see the systemic failures."

Despite Pratt’s blistering critique of the mayor, it is one of the ironies of the race that a November runoff against Pratt could create a dream scenario for Bass, because there are so few conservatives in L.A. “If she gets Spencer Pratt in the general election,” said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, “she has a very good chance of being re-elected.”

Maeve Reston is a national political reporter who has covered politics for more than two decades at publications including the Washington Post, CNN, and the Los Angeles Times.