From left: Rep. Adam Gray (top) and Kevin Lincoln, Marni Von Wilpert (top) and Jim Desmond, Randy Villegas (top) and Rep. David Valadao. (Photos by Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images, Jon Kopaloff/Getty Images for Connor Treacy, Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Economic Security Project, Kevin Lincoln for Congress, Luke Johnson / The San Diego Union-Tribune via Getty Images and Marni Von Wilpert for Congress.)
ONCE UPON A TIME, California was a land of bounty. Specifically, a bounty of competitive House races that were closely watched across the nation and could determine partisan control of Congress.
But that was before California voters approved Prop. 50 last November — the gerrymandering ballot measure that temporarily scrapped independent redistricting and redrew the congressional maps to favor Democrats. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s initiative was part of a redistricting arms race across the nation, with California parrying a similar Republican-led effort in Texas, and a number of other states following suit.
In 2024, California had more closely-fought House races than any state in the nation. This year, there are just three partisan California House races rated as competitive by the nonpartisan analyst Cook Political Report, which is widely considered the gold standard for congressional race handicapping.
But with redrawn battlegrounds across the country, that handful of California races could still help determine which party commands the House. (There are 52 California House seats in total.)
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